Gold. Oil. H2O? We tend to forget that fresh water is a more valuable commodity than crude oil. Water is the indispensable resource, the sine qua non, on which human survival depends. And although water covers approximately 70 percent of the earth's surface, only about 3 percent of the planet's supply is fresh and thus suitable for consumption. Further, as the world's population increases, the competition for fresh water grows tighter. The United Nations estimates a global population of 9 billion by mid-century. Jeffrey D. Sachs wrote in Scientific American in January:

"Look closely at the violence in Afghanistan, Chad, Ethiopia, Iraq, Pakistan, Somalia and Sudan--one finds tribal and often pastoralist communities struggling to survive deepening ecological crises. Water scarcity, in particular, has been a source of territorial conflict when traditional systems of land management fail in the face of rising populations and temperatures and declining rainfall."

And water-related tensions are spreading. The rapid industrial growth of countries like China and India has caused increased intra-state competing claims between farmers and industry over limited water resources around the globe. This, like global warming and the population boom, is a relatively recent historical phenomenon. As Sandra L. Postel and Aaron J. Wolf wrote in Foreign Affairs on September 18, 2001, "The only recorded incident of an outright war over water was 4,500 years ago between two Mesopotamian city-states, Lagash and Umma, in the region we now call southern Iraq." Things, however, are changing.

Last summer a study by the United Nations University suggested that climate change is making desertification "the greatest environmental challenge of our times." Rising global temperatures because of global warming may also exacerbate desertification. And in Darfur particularly, deforestation, drought, and desertification affect the balance between peace and conflict. While water-related conflicts have historically only involved local actors, the lack of effective and accountable international structures augurs ominously for a future of encroaching desertification. Without official mechanisms to resolve water scarcity tensions, outright war, which we have thus far avoided for four millennia, may be inevitable. The prevention of these violent "Water Wars" will involve capable, responsive institutions and the rule of law where, oftentimes, there is none.

[image: investopedia]