Let me just get this out of the way for journalistic transparency purposes - I not only said about two years ago that a Hillary Clinton campaign and/or nomination was a very bad idea, but as recently as February was on the fence, yet came to fully embrace and support Barack Obama for the US Presidency. So even though I have my biases, it's not like I drank any kool-aid to show my support.
Just saying ... so let's go now to the facts.
- The front-runner of the Democratic primaries happens to also be the underdog : Senator Barack Obama has won 30 primaries and has 1, 420 pledged delegates. Senator Clinton was up until March of this year the front-runner, with as much as a 20 point lead in states like Pennsylvania. She has won only 14 primaries and has only 1249 pledged delegates.
- A pledged delegate is selected out of the results of the voting in a primary. They are pledged because they don't actually cast their vote until the convention.
- When it comes to the Superdelegates (party insiders who get to be delegates regardless of any popular vote) Clinton leads Obama. Clinton has 255 and Obama has 231. There are still 308 of these members of the party elite who have remained "undecided" and holding out for either a clear downfall for Hillary Clinton or, as the AP article suggests, are waiting to cut better backroom deals.
Now, here's what we need to keep in mind:
"Even if the New York senator wins by more than 20 percentage points tomorrow -- a landslide few experts expect -- she would still have a hard time catching him." -- Catherine Dodge and Kristin Jensen, Bloomberg.com
"I'm sticking with my view that she needs double digits in Pennsylvania to stay in the race." --Andrew Sullivan, The Daily Dish
"I'm seeing the one thing that I feared. Obama is set to win this state, but what's standing in his way is overwhelming resistance in the Northeast and the Southwest." --Martin Longman, Booman Tribune
"If a 10-point victory is the pundit-driven threshold she needs on Tuesday, it looks like she can do it." --Eric Kleefeld, TPM Election Central
The primaries are not going to be over tomorrow. I've been following Joe Trippi's daily pondering on Twitter and he completely believes that it's going to be decided in North Carolina on May 6th.
To me, it's not soon enough :P
The Primaries Thus Far


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